French ANJ Issues Firm Warning Against Illegal Prediction Markets

The Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), France's principal gambling regulatory body, has recently escalated its public warnings concerning prediction markets, detailing their operational risks and illegal status within national borders. Despite acknowledging the sector's undeniable growth and its facilitation of transactions valued in billions of euros, the ANJ firmly stated that these platforms lack legal recognition under French legislation.

According to the regulator's explicit classification, prediction markets are definitively categorized as "illegal gambling." This legal designation has spurred direct intervention from the ANJ, which has successfully pressured key operators in the prediction market space to implement geoblocking mechanisms. These measures aim to restrict access from France, though the ANJ noted that determined users might still circumvent these safeguards through Virtual Private Networks (VPNs).

The ANJ's advisory extends beyond legalities, placing a significant emphasis on potential consumer detriment. The authority voiced profound concerns that involvement in prediction markets could precipitate harm comparable to gambling addiction. A crucial aspect contributing to this risk, as underscored by the ANJ, is the absence of the rigorous player protection frameworks that are mandatory for legally regulated gambling services. This regulatory void, the ANJ cautioned, could foster a "significant addictive loop," leaving participants vulnerable to considerable financial and personal distress.

In its detailed analysis, the ANJ specifically named Kalshi and Polymarket as prominent global players within the prediction market ecosystem. The regulator also critically assessed the promotional strategies employed by these platforms. It specifically cautioned against the use of terminology such as "investment," suggesting that such language is carefully chosen to cultivate an "illusion" that these markets operate outside the domain of traditional gambling.

Moreover, the ANJ highlighted how external influences perpetuate this misconception. Extensive media coverage detailing substantial winnings from prediction markets, coupled with the aspirational narrative of achieving "easy profits"—a theme often associated with volatile financial instruments like cryptocurrency trading—reinforces this deceptive perception among users. This can lead individuals to believe they possess a superior ability to "predict the news better than everyone else," masking the underlying nature of unregulated speculation. The ANJ's announcement serves as a critical reminder to French citizens regarding the inherent risks and legal non-compliance associated with participating in prediction markets.