American Public Skeptical of Prediction Markets Amid Sector Investment Boom

A new comprehensive poll has brought to light a significant disparity between the burgeoning growth of prediction markets and the American public's perception of their legitimacy and safety. The findings suggest that a large proportion of U.S. adults view these platforms, which frequently present sports-related wagers as "event contracts," as inherently gambling activities.

Details of the poll were released this week by the coalition Gambling is Not Investing, an advocacy group focused on preventing prediction markets from operating unregulated sports event offerings that may contravene state and tribal laws. Conducted by Morning Consult between March 17 and 22, 2026, the study gathered insights from 15,029 U.S. adults, reporting a margin of error of +/- 1%.

Key results from the survey reveal that a striking 81% of Americans concur that offering futures contracts on sports events through prediction markets constitutes gambling. Furthermore, 73% of respondents acknowledged that the use of terms like "event contracts," "futures," or "swaps" for sports betting makes it challenging for consumers to fully grasp the inherent financial risks involved.

This public sentiment emerges concurrently with notable financial expansions within the prediction market sector. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, recently announced an additional $600 million investment in Polymarket, a global prediction market platform. This latest funding, disclosed late last month, follows an initial $1 billion investment by ICE into Polymarket in October 2025, underscoring significant institutional confidence in the industry's growth trajectory.

However, the poll data strongly indicates a public desire for increased regulation. An overwhelming 81% of Americans believe that prediction markets should adhere to established state gaming regulations, including policies on age verification, taxation, and problem gambling initiatives. A related concern was expressed by 77% of U.S. adults regarding prediction market platforms that permit 18-year-olds to wager on sports. Critics argue that enabling individuals as young as 18 to bet could heighten the risk of gambling-related harm within this demographic, especially when the standard minimum age for casino gambling and sports betting in most of the country is 21.

The gravity of problem gambling is further highlighted by data from Addiction Help, referencing the National Council on Problem Gambling, which estimates that approximately 5 million Americans meet the criteria for compulsive gambling. Alarmingly, only 8% of these individuals seek assistance, emphasizing the critical need for effective safeguards and support services.